"Small" Mistakes Can Cost You A Lot

A few months ago curiosity got the better of me and I investigated video poker. That curiosity was spurned by a losing streak at BlackJack. These happen and when you lose your head, you should step away for a bit. So I did. I'd listened to Bob Dancer over at Gambling with An Edge and his discussion of video poker. I settled on Double Bonus Poker because of the higher payouts for various 4 of a kind hands which come up around 2x per 1000 hands. I learned from Blackjack that going into a game where there is optimal play as opposed to "pull and hope" as is with "reel" slots, without knowledge of how to play would be costly. I had no idea just how costly.

I ruined 10x out of 10. Never experienced anything like that. Even posted to GWAE about it. Asking the dumb, in hindsight question as to whether this was normal.

Ha!

The reason I thought this might be normal is that Double Bonus Poker less than 10/7 pay is a net loss game. BlackJack without a continuous shuffler or other shenanigans is not. So I figured that since my EV was negative and wins and losses vary around EV in the long run I should *expect* to lose many more times than I win. Still, though, I didn't think ruining every. Single. Session. would happen.

When I started playing Blackjack I did not know Basic Strategy but I was learning it. I had an idea that it was a bad idea to hit when the dealer had less than a 7 showing, but I was unawares or all the double down plays outside of 10 and 11, so I gave up quite a bit to the casino on those plays. Still though, with a poor understanding of BS and using Martindale double up strategy I won money more than half the time. Of course I would get wiped out on those losing streaks. But I had a good chance that I would double my buy in. Video Poker was having none of that.

I figured that a game in which you essentially flat bet could not regularly ruin a player. I forgot that if a casino is offering a game it is because it expects to make money off of it. If it doesn't it doesn't put it out. At least not on purpose. The thing with VP is that you can play for houuuuuurs before ruining. Some find that entertaining. Me, not so much. Maybe if I made a long trip to play, but sitting for hours to lose all I brought and to have never been up is not my idea of "fun".

So I did some research and confirmed that I had indeed brought enough so that my risk of ruin was below 10%. So if I was ruining every time, I was definitely doing something very wrong. Well I discovered my mistake. It was one that a beginner or even someone who is thinking but doesn't quite understand the game would do. I won't say *what* I was doing wrong but lets just say that that those plays between low pairs and high pairs are quite significant. The 4 changes I made to my play, which seemed "wrong" but now that I understand the game are obviously right, changed "ruin every time" to 1 ruin in 10. That's a HUUUGE difference in outcome.

So the lesson here for anyone looking for more than entertainment and to not just hand money to casinos is quite clear. Theose "small" mistakes add up and will cost you a whole lot of money. No, the machine is not rigged. Yeah, you may have simply had a bad streak, which are going to happen, but if you are playing a game where there is any strategy or optimal play, you should learn it as much as you can (perfect would be best but we all make mistakes) before putting down the large money. And with the availability of games on IOS and Android, there really isn't a reason to part with your cash until you are proficient.