Sham 2022

 Registered. It's ON! I was on the fence about doing the Sham in 2022. Firstly because I have work drama that is unresolved. But I've decided that regardless of how that goes, I'll spend the money to do the race. That means registration and hotel. 

The second issue was that this year they changed the course. I believe that course change along with very strong winds and an open course contributed to me not making my target time (though I did PR). And by "open course" I mean that there were points where we had to cross streets. Obviously that means a slow down and stop. The 2022 course is back to the old course (so far) so that's goods for me as my training is more like the actual run (out and back without stops and without a hell of a lot of turns).

As for training; if you followed me last year then you know I got into MAF training with stellar results. I'm into year two and still getting more benefits. As noted in a previous blog I'm not nose breathing which is a great indicator of my overall CV condition. It's also a nice way for me to gauge my effort without having to look at my phone or watch for pacing. 

Also since I am now running over 100 miles per month (hey I'm not elite!), which previously only happened in the late stages of my training, I'm going to train differently this training block.  Starting in Jan I'll be doing about 130 miles per month with 13 mile long runs. I don't usually get to 13 miles until Feb but the way I feel now, I think I can do that without injury. Avoiding injury is key.  Why January? Holidays mess up eating and other habits so I don't want to commit to a schedule. 

I also do intermittent fasting (16-8) and holidays will mess with that. Also getting in Blackjack hours is something to work around. Playing late nights is better for EV (expected value) due to less people at the table, but ruins sleep. If you're at a hotel with a 11AM check out, this can be very problematic.

Another problem is the increased cost of training. Last year I was able to stock up on older model sneakers via Burlington and Marshalls. Well they have squat for inventory now. Apparently the brands are keeping these items to themselves this year. I'll likely need to replace a few sneakers by race day, though my race sneakers are still good to go (hopefully they don't disintegrate due to lack of use). I'll be checking two brand's outlet stores to see if I can get bargains but I don't look forward to paying 50%+ more for these sneakers again.

So it's on. Let's see if I can PR.

Six Percent House Edge!!!!!?????

 Went scouting yesterday for blackjack games with good rules and low minimums. Didn't find any. Turned my eye to video poker, which is a losing game off the bat but can become positive if the payouts are "correct" and the mailers are decent.  I was going to play a little bit to make the trip "worth it" but  the payouts needed to be "correct". It would still be losing but that day I was willing to do that.

Looked at Jacks or Better: 6:5.

For all denoms.

5% house edge.

The best you got was 8:6 in the high limit room at $25 per coin.

At $25/coin I expect 9:6 and nothing less. 

Then there was Bonus Poker. I don't recall the actual pay table but I DO remember that they whacked the two pair pay to 5 coins. Full pay bonus poker pays 10 for two pair. 

No thank you.

For kicks I checked the Deuces wild. I'm not as familiar with this game "on sight" like I am Jacks and Bonus but when I saw that 3 of a kind and straights paid the same I figured something was wrong. I saw that 5 of a kinds paid 50. I KNEW that was wrong and I also knew that completely wrecked the expected return.

When I put it into the Wizard of Odds calculator:

6% house edge.

So say you put in $200 and play 500 hands per hour. at 25cent per coin, you're playing $625/hour.  You've lost $37.50 in that hour. In 3 hours you've lost half your buy-in. And that's just on the EV. Actual Value can mean your $200 is gone in an hour or less. Particularly if you fail to:

1) Play perfect strategy

2) Are unfortunate enough to not hit a 5 of a kind OR 4 deuces in that session.

Yet there were people playing. Me? I went home.

Why? Take that JoB game. at it's proper payout (9-6) the house edge is about .5% So that same $200 with 500 hands/hour and $625/hour (and that's a SLOW rate). The expected loss is $3.12. I can play for quite a long time. Again, Actual Value will be far more or less than that but why would I volunteer to lose $37 for a game I should only lose $3?

Maybe that's OK with you. It's not OK with me. Apparently, it's OK with the people playing...assuming they even did the math and....I doubt that. But that's another problem for another day.

Milestone Achieved

 Haven't posted here for a while but for those who check you know I've taken up MAF training. Well it's been about 20 months of it and I hit a milestone: Total nose breathing!

I had noticed on one of my runs last week as well as some bike riding that I wasn't mouth breathing as often as I used to. In fact, my breathing wasn't as labored (relatively speaking) as I had been accustomed to. So today I decided I would only run as fast as I could while only breathing through my nose.

6.5 miles later a finished run without even a gasp. And it wasn't a slow one. Not race pace but not slow.

Low EV and Cheap Hotels

 So now that I've done my racing I'm back in the Casino. Unfortunately, I had a severe downswing that resulted in me having to lower my EV significantly in order to protect my bankroll. with lower EV means having to watch what's spent on things OTHER than playing. This means that you look at hotel stays a bit differently.  So instead of the normal  Hampton Inn, I went with Quality Inn. Let's just say "Quality" would be a vast overstatement. Imagine walking into a room and seeing this:

Yeah. thems stains of some sort. I don't know from what but I knew one thing, I wasn't sitting on it. I'm not even going to get into the clientele. It's usually a bad sign when you have signs about extra charges for smoking in the lobby AND room. It's also a bad sign when people who look like they may be doing some illegal substances are sitting in doorways.

It's really not a good sign when first thing in the morning you see 4 police SUVs pull up. 

Yeah. That low EV life is not at all nice. 

Should I discuss the black spots in the bathtub caulk? No? OK.

Let's just say I won't be returning to this establishment. Period.  When I pay for a "cheap" hotel, I don't expect much in the way of amenities. I do expect a chair and chairs lacking in what appears to be bodily fluid stains and what appears to be mold. 

I left a note on the chair telling whoever it is that 'cleans" it to throw it away. 

Road To The Sham: Gale Force Winds!

Having arrived on location we have been met by gale force winds. Extremely fortunate that the race wasn't today. Historically this race has been windy so I am prepared for that. Sunday AM still seems to be the best day (the course is open for multiple days) to do the run.

I do not think I will PR for one reason: This is not a proper race. That is we are not on closed roads and have to cross a couple of streets. This means stops that can last minutes if there is no "crossing guard". On the way to the hotel I noticed some people running the route (with this wind I have no idea why) and there was no signage or any of that. Therefore I have been doing a survey via Google Maps. There is a weird turn-about point that I'm glad I looked at ahead of time. I still think I'll visit it. 

In any case:

The intended race kit.

Jan 2021 Mix

 Been two years since I last tried to do the DJ thing. Here's the latest. I need to practice but perhaps you'll enjoy.

sondjata olatunji · Jan 2018 House Mix