BlackJack Tips for Newbies

So those who know me know I play BlackJack and, yes, I pay my bills with it. I've read a lot of online and offline material as to get a handle on the game so that I minimize my losses and increase (not maximize) my earnings. I have been to a lot of places and there are things that I see people doing things that really the equivalent of putting your money in a pile and setting it alight. So this post is for those folks who are playing Blackjack for more than "the fun".

Now first I'm not going to tell you how to count cards. If you want to do that, there are places to go to read that and books you can buy to learn that. If you are playing one of those video Blackjack games, particularly those with continuous shuffles, card counting will be of limited value. I'm going to tell you what you need to do to come out ahead 80% of the time.

1) Do not be emotional! Emotional play will inevitably make you lose your session bank or worse. It will make you chase losses to extremely high amounts.

2)Stop over-betting your bank! I often see people treat a Blackjack table as if it was a lottery ticket. Blackjack is about statistics and statistical variance. You win in the long run. The short run is very much stacked against you. Just yesterday evening I watched a man lose $400 in 5 minutes better $100 hands because he expected to get BlackJack. I can tell you from experience and my records that the odds of you winning your first 4 hands in a row are virtually zero (has not happened to me since I've been keeping records). The most likely event is a win, loss, win, loss, loss. You can see that this means you will likely end up $100 in the hole if you flat bet $100 per hand.

3)Corollary to over-betting bank. Stop bringing 20 bucks to a $10/minimum table. I made this mistake early on and began my $600 losing streak as negative variance took it's toll on my small wagers. One of the biggest problems with too little bank, particularly the $20 banks is that you cannot take advantage of oppopportunities to double down. And if you learn Basic Strategy you know that there are fare more opportunities to double down that you though and this is where you make your real money. Since you can't double down you have limited opportunities to overcome negative variances. For example as show in item two say you have win, loss,win, loss, loss and say that win2 came off a double. guess what? you're not down anymore and if you win the next hand you're up 20 rather than even. That's a rather large swing.

4) Learn Basic Strategy: Again, if you're only playing for fun, don't worry about it. If you're trying to make money you need to learn basic strategy. And yes you need to learn the entire chart. knowing only most of it will still make you bust when you shouldn't (and if you bust you're out) and miss opportunities to double and split meaning you are leaving money on the table that you need to overcome negative variance.

5) You make money off of neutral and positive variance. You lose money on negative variance: What is variance? Basically it's statistical talk for how far off average a set of data is. For example if you use a coin toss. In a coin toss you have a 50-50 chance for heads or tails. However if you flip a coin 100 times it is unlikely you are going to get an exact 50 50 count. You'll get more heads or more tails. This is variance. In Blackjack you expect to win 43% of your hands outright. Another 8% will be pushes (even money because you and the dealer have the same number). The dealer will win 48% of the time. You will win doubles at a rate of 60%, Splits about 50%. from this you understand that you will LOSE most hands. Thus understanding when to split and double is essential in increasing your winnings to overcome the losses. Understand that just because you *should* win 60% of doubles does not mean that each time you play you will win 60% of doubles OR that you will get many opportunities to double in the first place.

6) Beware losing Streaks. This goes along with the advice to not be emotional. You should understand that you will LOSE at some point. You need to limit your losses. I hear people talk about how they are $1400 down and still playing. Me, with my self imposed betting limits, if I'm down $150 i'm leaving. The time and math or risk required to get that money back is too much for me. If you have small bank and are down that amount of cash, you will be spending a lot of time trying to get that back. So if you find yourself in a hole STOP DIGGING and go home. Now the danger with losing streaks is that depending on your bank and betting strategy you can lose a significant amount of money in a short period of time.

I have done the math and discovered that the most likely number of losing streaks is between 1-5. If you are in an extreme negative variance you will see losing streaks of 6-8. If you are EXTREMELY unlucky (by statistical means) in that losing streak will be lost doubles. If you find yourself in such a streak and your bank is being hit, it is likely a sign for you to cash out and go home. If your bank can survive that kind of loss then keep going. Just understand that you've just doubled or tripled the time you need to make any goal you had because you have to make up that bank. And here's the kicker, the longer you play the more likely it is that you will hit negative variance. I've had situations where I was between 100-200 down and even 3 or 4 times and walked away after 3 hours with $10 (ten dollars up from original outlay).

This is the danger of the Martingale system. In short in the martingale system you double your bet after each loss. Yes I tried this and I have had spectacular wins and near total losses. But lets look at the math, most times you won't go past 4 losses in a row so based on a $10 bet you have losses of, 10, 30,70, 150, recovery back to original +10. Now so long as you don't have any mishaps this system can work. Particularly if you have a modest win goal and get out when you make it. But what happens if one of your 40% losses in doubles hits? Back to the math:

10, double loss and double that bet, 50, 100, 300 Oh now in 4 hands you've lost 300. And if you are a low max table (typically $500) you've also hit the betting limit which means you've now lost 200 assuming you win the next hand. All for $10. Now it doesn't look to good.

Say you really get unlucky with a 7-8 hand losing streak. Compare a flat bet:

10,20,30,40,50, 60, 70, 80 lost 80 bucks is not nice but far easier to recover from than -$300. Now martingale:
10,30,70, 150, 310, 630, 1270... Get the point?

So how do you moderate these losses? Again without counting cards and throwing out large bets when the odds are in your favor you should do the following (do not blame me for your losses!). Pick your minimum bet. most places do not go below $5. There are places where you can bet less than that but I consider that a waste of valuable time. so you should bring back that is 100x minimum bet. that's $500 for a $5 minimum.

. Next, do not bet more than 4x minimum. that's $20. Do not violate this rule unless you are willing to lose more money.

At each loss, add $5 until you hit $20 and follow basic strategy.

If you hit $20 and still lose (that's 4 losses in a row, which is on the further side of average) you go back to your minus bet and consider those losses gone. Accept it and move along. I cannot stress this enough. ACCEPT your losses as statistically inevitable. Don't get upset. Don't hit the table, cuss and all that. Stay level headed. Start the sequence over again. it is UNLIKELY that you'll go 8 losses straight but it COULD happen. Accept that and consider leaving for the day.

The one thing that will hurt you is losses on splits and doubles. If you lose streak with those on your higher amounts (15-20) you should seriously consider going home.

7) Lastly, Set a win goal. Personally I like the 40% rule. That is don't plan on winning more than 40% of your session bank. I actually go for less than that (I have my own goals). Once met, cash out and go home. If you are taking a trip where you will be at a casino all day, then this is a good time to do something else for at least an hour. put your earnings in a pocket called "do not spend" and return back to your original bank. bet your bank, not your winnings. You only leverage your winnings DURING a session.

Now I'm sure there are experts that will dispute what I have written here. I'm not going to disagree with them. I'm only writing what is working for me. What works for you and other people may be different. No problem. If it works for you then do it!