This Really Isn't Good

So last week I was playing blackjack and between hands I was looking around at the slot machines and noticed a sign that was similar to the one above. "That's not good", I said to myself. There are, generally speaking, two kinds of people that frequent casinos: Those that expect to win and those that hope to win.

The former usually knows that every game in the casino is a long term losing proposition with the exception of Blackjack (and maybe Baccarrat but I'm not sure). The latter doesn't know this but hopes to leave with more than they came in with. The former is not swayed by any amount of flashing lights and animations. As a matter if fact, they probably find it annoying and would rather not have to deal with hearing it. The latter succumbs to the dopamine hits and plays anyway.

This struck me as I was playing with 2 other persons. One of them said something to the effect that "I always lose my money but WOOOO I won the Royal match!" Maybe it's me, but I don't find much comfort in knowing that I'm steady losing my money but "looky here 25 bucks!"

Another player asked why I didn't play the Royal Match (I do, but only under certain circumstances). When I was done I explained card counting to her and explained that at high counts I expect for high cards to drop and that 3 of the 4 10 value cards were face cards and therefore I was expecting to get a pair. Under any other circumstances I would be hoping for a pair. There is a difference between expected value and hoped for value. As an aside, the problem with Royal Match with high counts is that the pairs don't tend to fall out for the player (at least in my observation) as often as they fall out for the dealer (which I do not understand) and the 10's you expect are usually found on the draw.

So I also explained to the woman that when you see a "97% return" you should read "we take 3 bucks of every hundred". A lot of people think this means that they will literally lose 3 bucks. No, it is an average. The "3 bucks" may be taken from the previous player who has what we'll call "disastrous luck". And then the next person who sits gets lucky and wins 10,000 bucks. Trust me, barring a machine mis-program or malfunction, that machine has taken in far more than 10k over it's service life.

I say all that to say this: It's not that you won't win. It's not that you can't win. It's that it's better for you to find something where you expect to win. Or as the folks at LasVegas Advisor say: Gamble with an Edge.