So I ran the distance today which would have been race day. Results:
1) 1:41:01 for 13.22 miles. So 1:40:30 ish for the 13.1 distance Average of 7:38/mile. a full 2 seconds off my per mile pace for my PR. Booo.
2) This would have been a Sham PR which was previously 1:42.
Some caveats:
1) Of course since this wasn't a race there wasn't the pack of people that can cause you to run faster (for better or worse).
2) My nutrition plan went to hell. I have two waist bottles. One had water and the other an electrolyte and sugar mix. At mile 4 I discovered that the electrolyte mix bottle was empty. Apparently it sprung a leak. So I was running without half of my rations. Not good. I started to really feel it around mile 10. My heart rate was higher than training and I was having problems producing power at lower heart rates which cost me average speed.
3) Since this was an out and back run, there was a severe slow down at the turnabout. This kicked up the average time for mile six by a significant amount of seconds. Not making excuses, just saying.