Rubbing The Screen Is Not A Winning Strategy

So this weekend, aside from wild swings in bankroll (boo) I got to observe some interesting ploppy plays which I'll comment on here.

1) Rubbing the screen for luck: So I play on what I call "Fusion" machines discussed in earlier posts. I have developed a strategy that has an EV (expected value) of around 1.8 x unit/hour. So if you're playing $5 units, you should expect something like $9/hour. But that's another story, the point here is that I play against a computer and everything is on screen. Apparently there is this thing where people rub or tap the dealer's hand in hope of influencing what the dealer has. At first I thought it was just the one person but I noticed a stream of players doing this so it is apparently a thing. I suppose this comes from the same habit of rubbing slot machines (Fusion tables are considered slot machines in many jurisdictions). All I have to say is, this is not a winning strategy.

2) Surrendering non-bustable hands: This is another thing I've seen a few players do, particularly against a 10. Often done with pairs of low cards. I don't understand why one would surrender a 4,5 or 6. You cannot bust these hands. OK so you don't want to split and put out another minimum bet (it's always a minimum bet), Hit the hand then. Look, the point of surrender is to "retrieve" a high dollar (and supposedly high EV) bet when the odds are against you. In any other situation it is the equivalent of taking a lighter to your money. This is not a winning strategy.

3) Insuring a minimum bet: Like the surrender of non-bustable hands, this one is a "Light the money aflame" move. Why are you insuring your minimum bet? The point of the minimum bet is to give the house as little money as possible while the odds are against you. When you volunteer another 50% of your money during a hand with negative EV you're not doing it right. This is not a winning strategy.

Even if you are not counting cards these plays make no sense. I did all manner of progressions and never, ever made these kinds of plays. It was simply obvious that they made no sense. Lastly let me mention this one:

4) The "You Can't Lose More Than 3 Times" Strategy: I've written up the percentages of wins and losses in a row. Yes, there is a percentage associated with times in a row you can/will lose. Yes, you can use this to make money in the short run. How long that short run is, I cannot say because I stopped using that strategy, but I've had a decent 3 month unbroken winning streak with it, so I'm not going to totally dismiss this particular strategy. CV Data says that it is a loser in the long run but very slightly so depending on your unit size. That said, thinking that you cannot lose more than 3 times in a row is, well, dumb. I have sat through 10x losses in a row both live deals and computer deals. It is why Martindale systems lose. If you couldn't lose more than 3x in a row casinos would be out of business in short order.

If you're going to do some "in a row" method, my suggestion would be to pick a large unit size relative to your bankroll and pick a target that is 10% of whatever your session bankroll is. So for example, if you have 1000 you should use something along the lines of a $25 unit. CVData consistently shows that you have a 95-99% probability of winning 1 unit over a very short session. When you win that unit. Cash it and start over until you've made 10% of your session bankroll. Then go home. If you stay (perhaps because of a long distance trip), start again at the next shuffle. The longer you play, the longer you are exposed to the house edge and the more likely it is that you will lose your money. So for example, given the 1000 BR/25 unit size, you only need to win 4 units to make 10% of your session bankroll. This is generally doable within an hour (often, BUT NOT ALWAYS). The usual pattern with flat betting is starting up and then falling down or falling down and then creeping up. The pattern is generally that of a sine-wave. The objective is to catch the upward part of the wave and avoiding the downward part. Again, I warn the player considering this that overall it is a loser, you WILL hit a patch where you will lose your session bankroll. Generally (but by no means guaranteed) though you should have many multiples of it before that happens.